Deadline Day: Don’t get your hopes up

128 comments August 31st, 2012

It’s that time of year again.  Jim White is frothing at the mouth in a cage deep in the bowels of Sky Sports, soon to be released.  Agents are rubbing their hands, clubs are panicking, and Arsenal are doing, well, nothing.  Transfer deadline day is here.

I’m exaggerating for comic effect.  We’re not doing ‘nothing’.  There will be a couple of relatively high-profile departures today – although Theo Walcott won’t be one of them.  Arsene Wenger has decided to run the risk of keeping him at the club as he enters the final year of his contract.  The latest quotes from Arsene don’t sound entirely convincing:

“Theo is focused to do well, and whatever happens at the end of the season happens at the end of the season. He loves the club. Maybe we can find an agreement at some stage.”

Keeping him without an agreement doesn’t make much business sense.  Either we’re very confident he’ll choose to sign, or we simply don’t feel we can afford to lose another established star.

One man who is going is Nicklas Bendtner.  The Not-so-great Dane is undertaking a medical in Turin this morning ahead of a loan move to Juventus.  I think we’re probably all agreed he’s landed on his feet there.  It’ll be a deal with an option to buy, but he’l have to have a better season than he did at Sunderland to stay in Serie A permanently.
Reports in the Korean media say Park Chu-Young has flown to Spain to complete a transfer to Celta Vigo.  However, I have it on good authority that Celta are pursuing other options, so this deal may not be quite as advanced as those stories suggest.
There’s a bit of chat that he could be joined in La Liga by Marouane Chamakh, who is linked with a move to Malaga.  I suppose we owe them a favour after stealing Santi Cazorla for £12.6m, although I’d still be slightly surprised to see us let all three of Chamakh, Park and Bendtner go.  If we do, then surely we have to bring in another centre-forward – and at the moment I can’t see us bringing in anyone at all.
There are a few stories doing the rounds in the papers this morning, linking us with Cheick Tiote, Daniel Sturridge, and Michael Essien.  Tiote I can write off straight away – Alan Pardew spent much of last night’s post-match press conference praising his chairman Mike Ashley for resisting enquiries from other clubs for his top talent.  Sturridge too seems unlikely – he is one of only two centre-forwards in the Chelsea squad, and question marks over his attitude make him an unlikely Arsene signing.  The Essien story has a ring of truth to it – Chelsea have little use for him in an over-stocked midfield, and he’s a player Arsene has long admired.  There are question marks over his form and his fitness, but no more so than when we took Yossi Benayoun on loan from the same club a year ago.
However, if you asked me to be bold, I’d stick with yesterday’s prediction:
Predicted Outs: Bendtner, Park
Predicted Ins: None
I’d love to be wrong.
Finally, yesterday saw the most celebrated draw of the football calendar: the Capital One Cup. We’ve got Coventry at home.  In other news, we’ve got Schalke, Olympiakos (again) and Olivier Giroud’s former club Montpellier in a comfortable-looking Champions League group.

And so it’s on with the transfer frenzy.  Through the pain, the anguish, the glimmers of hope and the long periods of boredom, I’ll be tweeting events over at @Gunnerblog.  Come Follow Me.

Thoughts On Possible Transfer Activity Between Now And 11pm Friday

56 comments August 30th, 2012

Not long now, is there? Not long for Arsenal to replace Alex Song, sell Theo Walcott, and do all those other things the newspapers have insisted they’re going to do. And yet it is very, very quiet. The day before the big day, I thought I might have a little look at what I expect to happen in the coming hours.

OUTS

All the talk yesterday was of Theo Walcott being on the verge of quitting Arsenal. Since then, there’s been a fair bit of backtracking from both sides, and Arsenal are now actively briefing that regardless of his contract situation, Walcott will stay. This reportedly follows on from talks between Theo and Arsene yesterday, during which the winger expressed a desire to find an agreement on a new deal.

Perhaps Arsenal were looking to flush out Theo’s true intentions by leaking the story of a possible sale to the press. Whatever the case, it now seems unlikely he’ll go. A bid from Liverpool would certainly test our resolve, but it seems we’ve decided to gamble that we’ll be able to find an agreement with the player before January. I suspect Walcott’s advisers are smart enough to know he’s on to a good thing with Arsenal, and a compromise will be reached in the coming weeks.

However, there will be others on the move. The list of possible departures reads: Sebastien Squillaci, Andrey Arshavin, Nicklas Bendtner, Ju Young-Park, and finally, at a push, Marouane Chamakh.

The one I consider most likely to move on is Bendtner. Both he and Arsenal admit that the relationship between the Dane and the club is broken beyond repair, and I suspect a solution will be found on the final day. Last year we waited all summer for someone to pay a fee, and when that failed to materialise agreed a hastily arranged loan deal with Sunderland. This summer we’ve hung on in the hope of receiving a few quid, but at this stage it wouldn’t surprise me if Bendtner makes another temporary move. All considered, I’d be hugely surprised to ever see him play for Arsenal again.

I’ve barely seen Ju Young-Park play for Arsenal at all, and having had his squad number pinched by Lukas Podolski, the chances of seeing him do so again seem slim-to-none. His biggest problem is going to be finding a club willing to take a chance on a player who has barely played in the last twelve months. It’s such an odd situation: his international record continues to suggest he’s a player with significant ability, yet he is plainly not part of Arsene’s plans. There was rumoured interest from Celta Vigo in Spain, but that’s now gone quiet. Should that fall through, I suspect he’ll get himself a move to the Middle East, or perhaps back to Ligue 1. For his sake, and for the good of his career, I hope he gets out.

If Bendtner and Park both move on, I think it’s highly unlikely we’ll allow Marouane Chamakh to go too, despite interest from Besiktas. If, as at Stoke, we field both Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski, then Chamakh is (rather worryingly) our first reserve centre-forward. I consider it impossible to let him go without signing a new striker – but more on that later.

Sebastien Squillaci, too, seems likely to stay. Arsenal had hoped to move him on earlier in the summer, but Bastia were unable to get close to the salary he currently earns in London. Since then Arsenal have sold Kyle Bartley, who had been promoted to the first-team squad, and seem set to retain the Frenchman as fifth-choice centre-half. Whilst he certainly has his failings, he was only called upon to make six appearances last season, so retaining him in the squad wouldn’t be a disaster. You never know: his experience could even prove useful away from the pitch.

The case of Andrey Arshavin is a tricky one to unpick. His Arsenal career seemed to be over when he joined Zenit on loan in February, only for Arsene to mention the possibility of a reprieve after an impressive Euro 2012. After being involved in the opening game with Sunderland, he then didn’t make the bench for Stoke, amid reports of a ‘business trip’ to St. Petersburg. Personally, I think he’ll still be at Arsenal come Saturday morning – but we can’t read too much in to that. The Russian transfer window runs for another week, so Arshavin’s future will still be up in the air until after the international break.

INS

I’m afraid this section is going to be rather shorter.

It’s not that Arsenal don’t need players. Hypothetically, we could strengthen all over the field. There are back-up goalkeepers who would fill me with more confidence than either Lukasz Fabianski or Vito Mannone. An experienced right-back would allow Bacary Sagna to recover at leisure and relieve the pressure on young Carl Jenkinson. Alex Song is yet to be replaced as the club’s primary holding midfielder, whilst the patchy form of Gervinho and Walcott means we could do with another option out wide. Finally, the worryingly high position of the goal-shy Marouane Chamakh in our attacking pecking order suggests a striker should be on any shortlist.

However, at this late stage, and judging from the whispers I’m (not) hearing, I don’t expect any major activity. Arsene will hold a press conference this morning, in which he will say something like:

“At the moment we are not close to anything. We are working until the last minute. If we find a special player at a good price, we will do it.”

It’s a different situation to last summer, when we desperately needed bodies. Arsene is searching within a very specific set of parameters, and I find it hard to see us turning up what he wants at this late stage.

It’s not that were not bothering.  We are making enquiries across Europe. Earlier this week, when Theo Walcott’s situation looked a little more precarious, Dick Law spoke to a club in Portugal about the logistics of signing a wide player. That interest, perhaps due to progress on the Theo front, has now been formally ended.

If we sign anyone at this late stage, I suspect it’ll be a forward. Arsene seems very confident in his midfield options, and despite the rumoured interest in Yann M’vila I can tell you with conviction we have made absolutely no contact with Rennes all summer. It’s interesting too that so many papers said we’d look to replace Alex Song with Victor Wanyama – a story that has died completely since Song’s departure. It’s almost as if it wasn’t true in the first place.

To put things in perspective, at this stage last summer we knew of an agreed fee for Andrey Santos, Park Chu-Young had completed a medical, and I’d let you know (albeit in code) about Per Mertesacker’s imminent arrival. We’d also been linked by a credible BBC journalist with Yossi Benayoun. This time round? Nothing. Granted, we still had the surprise signing of Mikel Arteta to follow, and Arsenal do like to do things on the quiet, but I think it’s too quiet for there to be any flurry of activity.

I could be wrong – we’ll get a clearer idea when Arsene meets the media this afternoon. I don’t think failing to add to the squad would be a disaster – we’ve bought well in Cazorla, Giroud and Podolski. But I do think there’s clear room for improvement, and I’d be delighted if we could add a defensive midfielder and a striker. I just don’t hold out much hope.

Predicted Outs: Bendtner, Park
Predicted Ins: None

Deadline Day Preview

190 comments August 31st, 2011

Deadline Day is upon us.  As you rise this morning, Brian Swanson will be dusting down his giant iPad, Jim White will be gargling salt water and taking speed, and some unfortunate soul will be stood outside the Tottenham training ground waiting for Harry Redknapp to tell him he’s signing a “triffic player”.

Yesterday, we knew of three deals going down: Park Chu-Young, Andre Santos, and Per Mertesacker – whose signing I tried to inform you about before the press broke it, albeit in code.  All three of those have since progressed to different stages.

Park was paraded by the club on the official site, and gave the kind of interview that immediately endears you to fans, stating:

“I’m really happy to be at Arsenal. In my opinion this is a great club. Now I have to show what I can do on the pitch. I will do my best, I will never give up, I will show heart and I will give everything I hope you will support me.”

You can be sure he’ll be keen to make a swift impact: in two and a half years time he’s scheduled to return to Korea to do two years of military service.  Arsene, at last, is thinking in the short-term.  Park will wear the number nine shirt, and compete for a starting position in our front three.

Further reading on Park:

We talked about Andre Santos at more length yesterday – the player has now since Turkey to head to England to seal the move (video here), having been granted a work permit yesterday afternoon.  I’m told he’s agreed a four year deal, with a fee of £6.2m.

Further reading on Andre Santos:

The signing of Santos should be announced today, along with that of Per Mertesacker.  I have to say I think Mertesacker is just what we need.  A big, strong, bruising centre-half with plenty of experience.

The deal came about rather quickly, with Arsenal only formalising their interest on Monday afternoon.  Mertesacker flew in from Germany yesterday to undertake a medical, and has agreed personal terms on a weekly wage of around £80,000.

Any centre-back signing was bound to split opinion, especially with Arsenal fans having been fed on a steady diet of Cahill, Jagielka and Samba across the summer.  I have to say that what Mertesacker lacks in Premier League experience, he makes up for in other areas.  At 26, he has 75 Germany caps.  He’s the captain of his club.  He’s played in 2 World Cups and a European Championship.  He has all that over Cahill, plus about four inches in height.  And, even at around £10m, he’s significantly cheaper.  It’s a no-brainer.

Further reading on Per Mertesacker:

There will be plenty more to say about all three players once the deals are done and the dust has settled.

Quite a lot could still go on today.  I’m expecting one or two departures.  Armand Traore completed his permanent move to QPR yesterday, and immediately began by assuring their supporters his disastrous performance against United was a one off.  I can assure them that it wasn’t.

Nicklas Bendtner was widely expected to move in this window, but that one was very quiet yesterday.  Indeed, there was more noise about a possible loan deal for Marouane Chamakh – it seems the two target-men’s futures are interwined.  Another striker, teenager Joel Campbell, is set to join French side Lorient on loan having failed to win a work permit.  Manuel Almunia will still be hoping to find a new club, whilst Henri Lansbury is another that could be on the move.

Lansbury leaving would be dependent on Arsenal finding a new midfielder.  Arsene was very clear that this was an area he wanted to strengthen, and whilst he seems to have shored the defence and attack up there’s still no sign someone to fill the void left by Cesc Fabregas.

Yesterday all the talk was of a €40m bid for Dortmund playmaker Mario Goetze, but the German club were swift to deny both the bid and the player’s availability.  More realistic targets are said to include the Chelsea pair of Benayoun and Malouda, whilst the rumours around Rennes’ Yann M’vila persist.

My personal opinion is that Santos, Park and Mertesacker may be it for this window.  I would absolutely love us to sign a midfielder, ideally one with the creative ability and flair  we’ve lost in Cesc and Nasri, but with less than 24 hours to go and no sign of a fee being agreed I consider it unlikely.

Still, stranger things have happened, and if Arsenal can pull three irons out of the fire, then why not four?  Whatever happens I’ll be following the news all day.  There may well be some sort of liveblog, so stay tuned for that, and I urge you to follow me on Twitter, where I occasionally dish out some quite useful bit of info.

Right.  See you on the other side, folks.

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