Thoughts On Possible Transfer Activity Between Now And 11pm Friday

56 comments August 30th, 2012

Not long now, is there? Not long for Arsenal to replace Alex Song, sell Theo Walcott, and do all those other things the newspapers have insisted they’re going to do. And yet it is very, very quiet. The day before the big day, I thought I might have a little look at what I expect to happen in the coming hours.

OUTS

All the talk yesterday was of Theo Walcott being on the verge of quitting Arsenal. Since then, there’s been a fair bit of backtracking from both sides, and Arsenal are now actively briefing that regardless of his contract situation, Walcott will stay. This reportedly follows on from talks between Theo and Arsene yesterday, during which the winger expressed a desire to find an agreement on a new deal.

Perhaps Arsenal were looking to flush out Theo’s true intentions by leaking the story of a possible sale to the press. Whatever the case, it now seems unlikely he’ll go. A bid from Liverpool would certainly test our resolve, but it seems we’ve decided to gamble that we’ll be able to find an agreement with the player before January. I suspect Walcott’s advisers are smart enough to know he’s on to a good thing with Arsenal, and a compromise will be reached in the coming weeks.

However, there will be others on the move. The list of possible departures reads: Sebastien Squillaci, Andrey Arshavin, Nicklas Bendtner, Ju Young-Park, and finally, at a push, Marouane Chamakh.

The one I consider most likely to move on is Bendtner. Both he and Arsenal admit that the relationship between the Dane and the club is broken beyond repair, and I suspect a solution will be found on the final day. Last year we waited all summer for someone to pay a fee, and when that failed to materialise agreed a hastily arranged loan deal with Sunderland. This summer we’ve hung on in the hope of receiving a few quid, but at this stage it wouldn’t surprise me if Bendtner makes another temporary move. All considered, I’d be hugely surprised to ever see him play for Arsenal again.

I’ve barely seen Ju Young-Park play for Arsenal at all, and having had his squad number pinched by Lukas Podolski, the chances of seeing him do so again seem slim-to-none. His biggest problem is going to be finding a club willing to take a chance on a player who has barely played in the last twelve months. It’s such an odd situation: his international record continues to suggest he’s a player with significant ability, yet he is plainly not part of Arsene’s plans. There was rumoured interest from Celta Vigo in Spain, but that’s now gone quiet. Should that fall through, I suspect he’ll get himself a move to the Middle East, or perhaps back to Ligue 1. For his sake, and for the good of his career, I hope he gets out.

If Bendtner and Park both move on, I think it’s highly unlikely we’ll allow Marouane Chamakh to go too, despite interest from Besiktas. If, as at Stoke, we field both Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski, then Chamakh is (rather worryingly) our first reserve centre-forward. I consider it impossible to let him go without signing a new striker – but more on that later.

Sebastien Squillaci, too, seems likely to stay. Arsenal had hoped to move him on earlier in the summer, but Bastia were unable to get close to the salary he currently earns in London. Since then Arsenal have sold Kyle Bartley, who had been promoted to the first-team squad, and seem set to retain the Frenchman as fifth-choice centre-half. Whilst he certainly has his failings, he was only called upon to make six appearances last season, so retaining him in the squad wouldn’t be a disaster. You never know: his experience could even prove useful away from the pitch.

The case of Andrey Arshavin is a tricky one to unpick. His Arsenal career seemed to be over when he joined Zenit on loan in February, only for Arsene to mention the possibility of a reprieve after an impressive Euro 2012. After being involved in the opening game with Sunderland, he then didn’t make the bench for Stoke, amid reports of a ‘business trip’ to St. Petersburg. Personally, I think he’ll still be at Arsenal come Saturday morning – but we can’t read too much in to that. The Russian transfer window runs for another week, so Arshavin’s future will still be up in the air until after the international break.

INS

I’m afraid this section is going to be rather shorter.

It’s not that Arsenal don’t need players. Hypothetically, we could strengthen all over the field. There are back-up goalkeepers who would fill me with more confidence than either Lukasz Fabianski or Vito Mannone. An experienced right-back would allow Bacary Sagna to recover at leisure and relieve the pressure on young Carl Jenkinson. Alex Song is yet to be replaced as the club’s primary holding midfielder, whilst the patchy form of Gervinho and Walcott means we could do with another option out wide. Finally, the worryingly high position of the goal-shy Marouane Chamakh in our attacking pecking order suggests a striker should be on any shortlist.

However, at this late stage, and judging from the whispers I’m (not) hearing, I don’t expect any major activity. Arsene will hold a press conference this morning, in which he will say something like:

“At the moment we are not close to anything. We are working until the last minute. If we find a special player at a good price, we will do it.”

It’s a different situation to last summer, when we desperately needed bodies. Arsene is searching within a very specific set of parameters, and I find it hard to see us turning up what he wants at this late stage.

It’s not that were not bothering.  We are making enquiries across Europe. Earlier this week, when Theo Walcott’s situation looked a little more precarious, Dick Law spoke to a club in Portugal about the logistics of signing a wide player. That interest, perhaps due to progress on the Theo front, has now been formally ended.

If we sign anyone at this late stage, I suspect it’ll be a forward. Arsene seems very confident in his midfield options, and despite the rumoured interest in Yann M’vila I can tell you with conviction we have made absolutely no contact with Rennes all summer. It’s interesting too that so many papers said we’d look to replace Alex Song with Victor Wanyama – a story that has died completely since Song’s departure. It’s almost as if it wasn’t true in the first place.

To put things in perspective, at this stage last summer we knew of an agreed fee for Andrey Santos, Park Chu-Young had completed a medical, and I’d let you know (albeit in code) about Per Mertesacker’s imminent arrival. We’d also been linked by a credible BBC journalist with Yossi Benayoun. This time round? Nothing. Granted, we still had the surprise signing of Mikel Arteta to follow, and Arsenal do like to do things on the quiet, but I think it’s too quiet for there to be any flurry of activity.

I could be wrong – we’ll get a clearer idea when Arsene meets the media this afternoon. I don’t think failing to add to the squad would be a disaster – we’ve bought well in Cazorla, Giroud and Podolski. But I do think there’s clear room for improvement, and I’d be delighted if we could add a defensive midfielder and a striker. I just don’t hold out much hope.

Predicted Outs: Bendtner, Park
Predicted Ins: None

Thoughts on: Stoke, Theo & the transfer deadline

36 comments August 29th, 2012

After a month of hard work and hedonism, I am back at the familiar grindstone.  Only it’s not a grindstone, it’s a laptop.  And this is less of a job and more of a hobby.  But other than that, it is literally exactly the same as returning to a grindstone.

On Sunday Arsenal drew 0-0 at Stoke in a game that won’t go down as a classic.  I understand the concerns about having now played 180 minutes of the season without scoring – especially the day after Robin van Persie lashed in his first goal at Old Trafford – but I still think a draw at The Potteries is a creditable result.  The back five coped admirably, and when you consider that we included the inexperienced Mannone and Jenkinson that’s some achievement.  It’s also worth noting that we didn’t look overrun in central midfield, where Mikel Arteta and Abou Diaby occupied the deep-lying roles.

One notable absentee was Theo Walcott, left out in favour of Olivier Giroud with the Ivorian Gervinho retaining his place on the flank.  At the time I pondered whether or not Theo’s omission might have anything to do with his contract situation, and judging by today’s headlines perhaps I wasn’t too far off the mark.

There is now just one day between today and transfer deadline day.  For those of you who are terrible at maths, that means the deadline is in just two days.  And yet this remains a major issue that still requires a resolution.  Last night both Walcott’s representatives and Arsenal were privately insisting that talks were still ongoing, although the story in every newspaper absolutely reeks of an agent trying to force the club’s hand – either to up their offer, or to allow the player to go.

There is rumoured interest from both Liverpool and Man City.  I’d consider City unlikely – they will almost certainly snare Scott Sinclair from Swansea as their fleet-of-foot British replacement for Adam Johnson.  Liverpool, however, seems to make a lot of sense.  Brendan Rogers loves a winger with pace – look at his use of both Sinclair and Nathan Dyer last season.  Walcott himself is a self-confessed boyhood Liverpool fan, and wouldn’t be put off by a lack of Champions League football if he felt he’d get a guaranteed first-team place.

As Saturday shows, he’s not guaranteed that at Arsenal.  His success last season was built on a partnership with Robin van Persie – without that, he is vulnerable to competition from the likes of Gervinho, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Lukas Podolski.

However, to lose another statistically productive attacking player – and big name – would still be a big blow to the club, especially with so little time to replace him.  I confess I had an inkling that this news might be in the offing – just a day before I tweeted some information that we were making enquiries around Europe for attacking players, particularly in wide areas.  If we are to lose Theo, we’re already looking at potential replacements.

What’s slightly worrying is the breadth and speculative nature of some of those enquiries.  We’ve asked about a couple of players for the first time in the window just two days before its end.  All signs point to another chaotic finish to the transfer window.  Several players are guaranteed to leave – Henri Lansbury became the first yesterday, joining Nottingham Forest for a bargain £1m – and I’m still hopeful one or two might arrive.

Hopeful without being expectant, I should say.  Doing a deal this late can be tricky, but at least I know we’re trying.  It could yet be a very busy few days.  Brace yourselves.

Some Thoughts On Theo

181 comments June 18th, 2012

I don’t know about you, but my emotional interest in international tournament is always two-fold. I cheer on my national side, England, doing my best to put aside my differences with various members of the squad. Beyond that, I look out for Arsenal players in action for their respective countries, and generally wish them well. Last night, for example, I was rather caught up in the varying fortunes of strike pair Lukas Podolski and Robin van Persie. The former scored on his 100th appearance for Germany as he sailed through to the Quarter-Finals. Robin, meanwhile, misfired again and is now heading on a plane home to ruminate further on his club future.

The night before, however, both my interests were intertwined, as Arsenal winger Theo Walcott came off the bench to drag England to victory against Sweden. After the pedestrian efforts of James Milner, his pace and direct running provided a welcome change in tempo. Just three minutes after entering the field, his deflected strike drew the score level at 2-2. And it was his searing run and pinpoint cross that allowed Danny Welbeck to pirouette and snatch England’s winner.

Unfortunately, Theo has now suffered a set-back in training, with a possible reoccurrence of the hamstring injury that troubled him at the back end of last season. If that is found to be the case, it will almost certainly end his tournament. It’s a shame for Walcott, who has waited six years to get on the field in a major international competition, but whatever happens it surely won’t be forgotten that without him England would be staring down the barrel of a group stage exit.

Of course, his game-changing contribution served to remind Arsenal fans that it is not just Robin van Persie’s future that is in doubt. Theo Walcott’s existing contract also expires in just twelve months, and there has been a far less tangible effort on Arsenal’s part to secure an extension.

There still seem to be serious doubts over Walcott’s ability. The emergence of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain as a genuine contender for his first-team spot with Arsenal and England has not helped him. In my opinion, we’d be mad to let him go. In purely cynical terms, he’s a major name and a commercial asset to the club. However, on the pitch, his understanding with Robin van Persie is almost telepathic, and his stats (for goals and assists) suggest that despite his capacity to frustrate he remains productive.

The problem for Theo will always be that he was hyped as the new Thierry. He’ll never be that. However, considering that when we bought him we were essentially taking a £10m gamble, the fact he’s turned in to a Champions League and international level performer is actually a pretty decent return. If he were to ever leave, we ought to expect a significant profit – and to do so, it is essential he is under contract. Letting it run down yet further makes no sense whatsoever.

The fixtures are out first thing this morning. All the chatter says we’ve got Sunderland at home in the first game. That’d be a nice start.

Thoughts on: Rosicky contract, Podolski deal, RVP’s future, Vertonghen

421 comments March 14th, 2012

Considering the transfer window is firmly shut, it’s unsurprising that my thoughts have been entirely on the on-field action.  However, away, from the pitch, Arsenal have also been making plenty of headlines.  With some brief respite in our fixture list, here’s a quick look at some of the major contractual shenanigans of the last fortnight:

Tomas Rosicky’s new deal
The timing of the announcement of this deal is significant.  Contract negotiations are a long, drawn-out process: Rosicky and the club will have been in talks over the past few months.  Had a deal been concluded and made public eight weeks or so ago, the fan reaction would have been very different.  At that stage Rosicky looked a shadow of the player Arsenal signed from Dortmund in 2006.

His recent form, however, has been startling, and I for one am delighted to see him staying.  I don’t buy the argument that he’s been “playing for a new contract” – as I’ve already stated, Arsenal will have decided to try and extend his deal some time ago.  It’s possible he’s been boosted by the manager’s show of faith.  What’s far more likely is that he’s benefitting from his first run of starts in years.  His combination of game-accelerating turns and passing and quite immaculate slide-tackles have been a vital component in our recent good run.

Handing Rosicky a two-year deal also represents a change of policy for Arsene Wenger, who had previously only offered players over thirty one year extensions.  There will have been various factors involved in that gear-shift, many of them economic, but he has also doubtless been influenced by seeing the value of experienced squad members at other clubs, like Manchester United.  The influence of Thierry Henry during his brief return to the club doubtless also gave Arsene food for thought.

The possible arrival of Lukas Podolski
The latest on this is that Dave Woods of the Daily Star reports that Podolski has now undertaken and passed a medical for Arsenal.  This would not surprise me, and it’s worth noting that the Star are very close to certain influential members of the Arsenal hierarchy.  It seems that whilst there are a few details of the transfer to iron out, Koln, Arsenal and Podolski all seem to have a determination for the deal to be done.

It’s hard to argue that this is anything but a good signing.  A fee of little over £10m for a player with almost 100 caps for Germany is extraordinary business.  Anyone who has seen Podolski play for Germany will have admired his pace, finishing, and ability to break quickly from the left-flank.  This season, he’s been in great goalscoring form, and after an ill-fated spell at Bayern Munich a few years back will be determined to make his mark at a big European club.

At 26, he is another example of the shifting age profile of Arsene’s signings.  Should the deal be completed he’ll add another finisher to the squad – something that the likes of Marouane Chamakh and Ju-Young Park have been unable to provide.

The future of Robin van Persie
Some have speculated that Podolski could be arriving as a replacement for Robin van Persie.  That is certainly not Arsene’s plan.  The club will make every effort to keep Van Persie, and hope to be able to deploy him alongside the German in our front three.

I can’t pretend to know what Robin will decide to do, but my gut tells me that if he feels Arsenal can challenge credibly for trophies in the next three years, he will stay.  He loves the club, he loves the role of captain, and he wants to make it work.  His decision will be influenced more by ambition than by money: Arsenal will be happy to make him the highest-paid player in their history.

Jan Vertonghen
The Times are reporting that Spurs are about to beat Arsenal to the signing of this Belgian defender.   Good luck to them: my information is that Arsenal are not interested in signing a centre-half this summer.  Whilst I don’t doubt we have kept a watchful eye on a talent like Vertonghen, Arsene currently believes the quartet of Koscielny, Vermaelen, Mertesacker and Djourou, with Miquel and Song available as back-up, is strong enough.  And I’d be inclined to agree.

Right, that’s yer lot.  Now back to the football.

Midweek musings: RVP, Podolski, Andre Santos

32 comments February 29th, 2012

Greetings, one and all.  I’ve been so busy of late that a midweek blog has become something of an unaffordable luxury.  However, with the horrors of Internationals upon us, I reckon it’s probably best that we huddle together and warm ourselves by a reassuring, Arsenal-flavoured fire.

I don’t know what percentage of the readers of this blog follow me on twitter.  If you don’t yet and are considering it, abandon that plan:  I will only stress you out, as I seem to have devolved in to the football fan equivalent of Chicken Licken.  In the last  48 hours I have stated, on separate occasions and with a worrying degree of certainty, that Robin van Persie and Mikel Arteta were both suspended for the game at Anfield, and that Van Persie had picked up an injury in training with Holland.  On each occasion, I was incorrect: the fact that Arteta and RVP have reached five yellow cards ceased to be relevant after December 31st, and the decision to let Van Persie sit out training with Holland last night was predominantly precautionary.  The sky, it seems, is not falling after all.  Apologies: I shall endeavour to be more thorough in the future.

Of course, we’ll still all be praying that RVP and others come through tonight’s internationals unscathed.  We have a massive game at Anfield on Saturday morning, and to be without the Dutchman in particular would be an enormous blow.  There’s rather a nice piece by Henry Winter here which makes clear his importance to the club.  Some papers have attempted to attach some drama to the fact that Van Persie will not enter in to discussions about a contract renewal until the end of the season.  To most Arsenal fans, however, it comes as no surprise.  Van Persie will want to know whether or not Arsenal will be competing in the Champions League, and in the interim one cannot question his absolute commitment to making that happen.  When those talks do happen, I don’t doubt that Arsene and Ivan will attempt to throw money at the problem by offering Robin a very competitive contract.  In some respects, they’d be better throwing it elsewhere: what’s most likely to keep him is a competitive Arsenal team.

Perhaps one of the summer recruits will be Lukasz Podolski.  German tabloid Bild claims the player has decided that his future lies with Arsenal – the sole obstacle is for the two clubs to agree a fee.  Knowing us, that remains rather a big obstacle, and the article itself seems speculative at best.  Let’s wait and see on this one.

A bit of good news to end with: Andre Santos has said on Twitter that he expects to be back playing in the next fortnight.  That’s a huge boost for us – prior to his injury, his form was outstanding.  Although Kieran Gibbs recovered from a shaky start to have a strong second half against Spurs, for me Santos is a superior player, and certainly provides a more experienced option at left-back.  When Santos returns, we’ll discover if Arsene sees it the same way – if, that is, Gibbs can stay fit long enough to make Arsene have to choose.

Right, that’s all from me. Enjoy your Wednesday.

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